It is the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan compelled largely by the failure of the Soviet economy that led to the dismemberment of the USSR and put an end to the Cold War in 1991.

This marked the advent of the era of ‘proxy wars’ and saw the rise of ‘covert’ offensives designed among other things, to subvert the economy of the targeted country in line with the new doctrine that ‘national security was inseparable from economic security’.

Warren Christopher, President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of State, first articulated this in 1993 -well after the collapse of the USSR had already left the US as the only Superpower driving the unipolar world order.

He was making the point that military strength could be countered with ‘asymmetric’ attacks.

It is interesting that the CIA, which had a powerful Economic Intelligence Division, ran into a criticism that the agency had overestimated the performance of the Soviet economy and failed to read the situation correctly in the run-up to the Soviet break-up.

Robert Gates, the then CIA Director redefined intelligence tasks in the post-Cold War era-supporting US policymakers in setting the country’s economic course, monitoring trends in technology that could affect both national security and economy and undertaking such counter-intelligence measures as were required to protect the country’s economy from those who did not play by the rules.

In the period that followed the end of the Cold War, the US government gave added importance to economic intelligence due to a general belief that future threats to national security could be more economic than military and that economic dominance rather than mere military superiority would be a major objective of state policy.

The scope of economic intelligence was further widened by the reported move of the US administration to advise the CIA not only to collect information of economic interest for the government but also to help the American corporate sector in whatever ways feasible-like giving it access to the ‘country briefs’ to enable it to expand in foreign markets.

Admirable Stansfield Turner, CIA Director in President Carter’s regime expressed the view that ‘in an age of increasing attention to economic strength there needs to be a more symbiotic relationship between the worlds of intelligence and business’.

The US intelligence was certainly watchful against the attempts of countries like China and Russia to penetrate US companies, industries and R&D establishments.

FBI was reportedly engaged in detecting economic espionage against US targets particularly in the light of the reports that Chinese ‘think tank’ establishments and corporate entities were serving the national security interests of their own country.

The Clinton Administration had enacted the Economic Espionage Act way back in 1996 to deal exclusively with this kind of threat.

In India, the importance of economic intelligence has constantly risen as the country aspires to be among the three largest economies in the world in the near future.

Global threats like terror funding, narcotics trade and human trafficking endangered national security and justified the creation of specialized agencies like the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and Enforcement Directorate besides the existing Economic Offences Wing of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

The national intelligence agencies of India and these investigation outfits would mutually gain through the exchange of information on these threats which were executed surreptitiously. And this is the reason why coordination among them had acquired a new-found importance and urgency.

Intelligence is not ‘evidence’ by itself but it helped to build what could be presented in courts as evidence and likewise, investigation could unravel information of ‘Intelligence’ value that could be further developed to unearth a security threat.

An important dimension of economic security is the safeguarding of strategically important technology and economic establishments that were exposed to covert threats of subversion and sabotage from the adversary.

There are well-defined arrangements put in place under the guidance of the Intelligence Bureau, the country’s premier agency for internal security- these have acquired added importance in the era of proxy wars. Cybersecurity becomes a major challenge for all establishments of strategic importance, for they run on exclusive IT systems that the enemy would try to hack.

Intelligence agencies today have to be very strong in data analytics as this is becoming an important source of information about futuristic trends in both geopolitics and the world economy. Artificial Intelligence is giving a new capability to data analytics-AI applications in the domains of intelligence and security, which are unfolding themselves fast.

A prime threat to India’s national security comes from the strategic alliance between Pakistan and China that was primarily directed against this country.

The Sino-Pak axis has pushed an anti-India agenda internationally and engaged in covert operations aimed at damaging India’s internal security and the economy as well.

Chinese drones have been used by Pakistan to drop arms and narcotics in the border states of J&K and Punjab which were already vulnerable to drug addiction amongst the youth. Pakistan was instrumental in arranging a ‘give and take’ between China and the Taliban Emirate after its return to Kabul in 2021 whereby the former extended its Belt & Road Initiative to Afghanistan by way of economic investment and in return Taliban would abstain from raking up issues of Muslim minority in China particularly in Xinjiang next door.

China and Pakistan the two hostile neighbours of India are stepping up their activities on the border- the former in Ladakh and the latter on international border across Jammu where infiltration of militants- possibly including ex-military men- had attracted notice.

In the wake of upheaval in Bangladesh whipped up by the Jamaate Islami-Pak ISI combine, Islamic militancy was likely to be instigated by Pakistan, in India also. It may be recalled that Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) an offspring of Jamaat, had formed Indian Mujahideen (IM) that indulged in acts of terrorism in 2006-08. The Sino-Pak alliance seemed to be acting in concert in many areas around India.

India has handled international relations by opting for mutually beneficial bilateral relations-extendable to multilateral friendships-that didn’t go against the cause of world peace and promoted the good of humanity.

As India is on the rise as a major power, it suits the country to base its foreign policy on a multipolar view of the world. India realizes that in the post-Cold War era, the nation must prepare for covert offensives from its adversaries and seek to build its economic strength through bilateral and multilateral friendships.

India joined hands with the US in sponsoring the India-Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) at the G20 Summit held in Delhi in 2023, with an agreement being signed in this regard by India, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, Jordon and the European Union. IMEC aimed at bolstering economic development by fostering connectivity between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe.

The project, which was evidently been put on hold, because of the conflicts in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas and between Iran and Israel, has been revived by President Trump.

It was meant to counter the BRI of China that had enabled the latter to advance its political hold in different regions of the world. On its part, China had drawn lessons from the dismemberment of USSR, and had started working on the economic route to becoming a Superpower - while keeping up its military and technological pursuits against the might of the US.

Amidst signs of a new Cold War developing between the US-led West on the one hand and the China-led group of countries hostile to the US on the other, India has the challenge of building its security and economic strength without getting overtly aligned with either side.

India’s strategy and policy framework seem to be working well for the country. For our national Intelligence agencies, the mandate has been significantly enlarged with economic intelligence getting added to it in a comprehensive way.

(The writer is a former Director Intelligence Bureau)

—IANS

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