Russia’s Advance in Ukraine and the Rising Stakes for Europe and NATO

As Russian forces push deeper into Ukrainian territory—most recently amassing over 50,000 troops near Sumy and accelerating their offensive across a 1,200-kilometre front—the geopolitical landscape of Europe faces a perilous shift. Moscow’s strategic gains on the battlefield, combined with a deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and cities far from the front line, signal not only a military offensive but a broader political ambition: to dismantle Ukraine’s sovereignty and reassert Russian dominance across the post-Soviet space.

With the United States slowing deliveries of essential air defence systems and interceptors—citing national priorities—and NATO's support trailing Russia’s escalating aggression, Ukraine finds itself dangerously exposed. The implications for European security, NATO cohesion, and the global order are both immediate and long-term.

A War of Attrition Tilting in Russia’s Favour

In the past month alone, Russia has gained 234 square miles of Ukrainian territory—an area roughly the size of Guam. This adds to a cumulative 44,463 square miles now under Russian control, representing 19% of Ukraine’s landmass. These figures mark not just a strategic advantage but a psychological one. Moscow is no longer merely holding territory; it is expanding its grip through a war of attrition, seizing village by village while exhausting Ukraine’s defences.

The northeastern city of Sumy now stands as the next likely target. Ukrainian troops had earlier withdrawn from parts of Russia’s Kursk region, and the front has since extended by over 160 kilometres, placing severe strain on Ukraine’s stretched forces. Despite efforts to reinforce key positions, the sheer numerical advantage of Russian troops—particularly near Sumy—has made defending the line increasingly difficult.

Ukraine’s Shrinking Arsenal: A Strategic Gap

As Kyiv endures one of the most intense aerial bombardments since the war began—477 drones and 60 missiles launched in a single wave—its ability to defend civilian centres and key infrastructure is being steadily eroded. American-made Patriot air defence systems, HIMARS rocket artillery, and precision munitions have proven essential in shielding Ukraine’s skies and halting Russia’s advances. However, uncertainty looms over continued U.S. support.

While a senior aide to President Zelensky confirmed on Wednesday that some Patriots are still arriving, reports indicate broader disruptions in ammunition and weapons deliveries. The White House stated, “This decision was made to put America's interests first following a Department of Defense review of our military assistance to other nations.” Former President Donald Trump, speaking at last week's NATO summit, said, “They’re very hard to get. We need them, too,” when asked about Ukraine’s request for more Patriots.

Such mixed signals undermine confidence in Kyiv and encourage Russian aggression. Delays in Western weapons deliveries create exploitable gaps in Ukraine’s defences—and Moscow knows it.

Russia’s Intent: Not Just Territory, but Total Subjugation

The rhetoric from the Kremlin has grown more brazen. “Now we have a strategic advantage. Why should we lose it? We are going further,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 20 June. President Vladimir Putin went even further, declaring at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, “I consider Russians and Ukrainians to be one people... all of Ukraine is ours.”

This is not hyperbole—it is doctrine. For Putin, the goal is not limited to annexing Luhansk, Donetsk or even the Zaporizhzhia corridor. It is to erase Ukraine as an independent, pro-Western state. The latest advances, including intensified attacks on cities like Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kyiv, form part of a deliberate strategy to break the Ukrainian nation psychologically and physically.

These developments challenge not only Ukraine’s existence but the broader rules-based international order that emerged post-1945. If Putin is allowed to succeed through force, it will serve as a precedent for authoritarian regimes globally.

European Security in the Balance

A Russian-controlled Ukraine would radically alter the military geography of Europe. NATO’s eastern flank—already under pressure from hybrid threats in the Baltics and disinformation campaigns across the continent—would face an emboldened Russia with forward-operating bases possibly within 100 kilometres of NATO territory in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Border states would be forced to significantly ramp up defence budgets, reintroduce conscription in some cases, and militarise civilian infrastructure. The EU would be compelled to fast-track integration and enlargement, not as a matter of policy but survival. Moldova, Georgia, and even the Western Balkans could become the next geopolitical battlegrounds.

Moreover, a prolonged war would continue to displace millions. Europe, already accommodating over five million Ukrainian refugees, could see renewed waves of migration as Russian forces advance. Societal and political pressures from this crisis could destabilise fragile coalitions across Europe and fuel populist narratives that undermine the transatlantic alliance.

NATO’s Credibility and Strategic Dilemma

At stake is also NATO’s credibility. The alliance has maintained that it would defend every inch of its territory. But Ukraine, though not a member, has functioned as a de facto shield for Europe. The alliance's inability or unwillingness to ensure Ukraine's defence against overwhelming odds may encourage other adversaries—particularly China and Iran—to test Western resolve elsewhere.

NATO's incremental support to Ukraine—through weapons, training, and intelligence—has proven useful but insufficient against Russia’s full-spectrum offensive. The alliance faces a stark choice: either scale up its backing substantially or prepare for an increasingly hostile security environment where conventional deterrence risks losing its teeth.

A New Iron Curtain?

The line of contact between Russia and Ukraine is hardening into a new fault line in Europe. If Moscow consolidates control over eastern and southern Ukraine, a new “Iron Curtain” could emerge—not just as a metaphor, but as a literal military and political divide.

The time to reverse this trajectory is limited. Western unity, technological superiority, and economic might still outweigh Russia’s long-term potential—but they require timely application. As Ukraine bleeds and Europe braces, the world watches whether the democratic order can withstand this test or whether it will fracture under the weight of indecision.

Without a significant shift in military support and strategic vision, the consequences may reach far beyond the steppes of Ukraine—and into the very heart of Europe.

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