When Yashasvi Jaiswal walked off the field unbeaten on 173 at stumps on Day 1 of the second Test against West Indies, India were comfortably placed at 318 for 2 after 90 overs. 
With Shubman Gill still at the crease on 20, the day clearly belonged to Jaiswal. 
Yet, as the sun set, one question dominated every cricket fan&rsquo;s mind&mdash;could this innings turn into something truly historic?
Triple centuries in Test cricket are almost mythical. 
Only 33 players have ever achieved the feat, and just two Indians&mdash;Virender Sehwag and Karun Nair&mdash;are part of that elite list. Scoring 300 in a Test is rare and unpredictable, but as analysts often say, cricket is a game of probabilities, not mythology.
Time and conditions in Jaiswal&rsquo;s favour
Jaiswal&rsquo;s biggest advantage heading into Day 2 is time. 
India lost only two wickets on the opening day, leaving eight batters still in the pavilion. 
This allows Jaiswal ample opportunity to bat deep into the next day, potentially for two full sessions. That time cushion is crucial for any batter chasing a triple ton.
The West Indies bowling attack&mdash;featuring Jayden Seales, Anderson Phillip, Jomel Warrican, Khary Pierre, and Roston Chase&mdash;worked hard but struggled to pose real threats on a placid pitch. 
Seales looked sharp, and Warrican claimed both wickets, but overall, the attack lacked the cutting edge to trouble India&rsquo;s set batters.
With capable players like Dhruv Jurel, Ravindra Jadeja, and Washington Sundar to follow, India&rsquo;s strong batting depth further eases pressure on Jaiswal. 
This gives him the freedom to play naturally and perhaps convert his seventh Test hundred into his maiden triple century&mdash;and India&rsquo;s third in Test history.
The numbers and probabilities
To evaluate Jaiswal&rsquo;s chances, analysts used a state-based Bayesian model that began with the historical frequency of triple centuries. 
The model adjusted for factors like Jaiswal&rsquo;s current score, the quality of the bowling attack, time available, and likelihood of declaration&mdash;along with his form.
Even so, a triple century remains an outlier. 
With Jaiswal on 173, the probability of reaching 300 stands around 5%, within a realistic range of 3&ndash;8%. In other words, roughly a one-in-twenty chance.&nbsp;
However, if he survives the opening 12&ndash;15 overs on Day 2, that probability could rise significantly. 
After that, the only challenge would be his own patience and concentration.
Whether or not Jaiswal crosses the 300 mark, one thing is certain&mdash;his innings has already captured the imagination of cricket fans worldwide.

Yashasvi Jaiswal celebrates unbeaten century in Test

Jaiswal nears historic milestone with unbeaten 173 as India dominates Day 1 vs West Indies

Jaiswal Eyes Rare Triple Ton Vs Windies

Jaiswal nears historic milestone with unbeaten 173 as India dominates Day 1 vs West Indies

October 11, 2025 | 15:18 IST