On Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautioned the nation about a silent yet dangerous challenge,&nbsp;demographic changes in border regions. He termed it a deliberate conspiracy, warning that such shifts could spark long-term security crises for India.
The issue traces its roots back to 1971, when Pakistan suffered a crushing defeat and Bangladesh was born. Realising that conventional warfare was futile, Pakistan&rsquo;s intelligence agency, the ISI, in collaboration with Bangladesh&rsquo;s DGFI and Islamist groups, is believed to have crafted a different strategy, an economic and demographic war.
A Long - Term Conspiracy 
The plan centered on altering India&rsquo;s demographic balance through large-scale illegal infiltration from Bangladesh. While initially slow in the 1970s, the influx picked up pace in the 1980s and surged in the 1990s. Border states such as West Bengal and Assam witnessed dramatic population shifts, with Hindu-majority areas gradually turning into minority zones. This engineered imbalance often triggered communal tensions, job losses, and security challenges.
Districts like Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, and North and South 24 Parganas in West Bengal, and Dhubri, Barpeta, Goalpara, and Morigaon in Assam, are among the worst affected. Intelligence assessments suggest the motive behind this effort is to revive the dream of a &ldquo;Greater East Pakistan&rdquo;, encompassing India&rsquo;s eastern and northeastern states.
The 1990s Operations and Findings&nbsp;
In the early 1990s, India&rsquo;s security establishment had uncovered extensive networks backing this demographic project. Islamist groups had set up training camps and infiltration routes, while sleeper cells began linking with terror modules operating out of Bangladesh. Operations carried out during this period revealed a systematic effort not just to change demographics but also to destabilise India from within.
The Expanding Threat 
Experts warn that the situation is most alarming in West Bengal, where demographic changes have been steepest. Estimates suggest that since 1971, the illegal immigrant population has surged by over 160 percent. Security agencies also highlight that the threat is no longer confined to the northeast, Karnataka, Kerala, Uttarakhand and other states have now reported similar infiltration-linked demographic shifts.
More Than A Border Problem 
What started as an ISI-backed infiltration project has today become a national security issue. Illegal immigration is not merely a humanitarian concern but a calculated move to create economic strain, communal unrest, and fertile ground for extremist groups. With a supportive regime in Dhaka, analysts believe the ISI will intensify these efforts, not only by pushing more infiltrators but also by setting up new terror hubs across the border.
India&rsquo;s security experts argue that this long-standing conspiracy demands a comprehensive response, treating demographic shifts not as isolated events but as part of a larger war of attrition against the nation&rsquo;s internal stability.

ISI’s demographic war on India since 1971

Bangladesh infiltrations seen as part of ISI’s long-term plan to destabilise India

ISI’s demographic war on India since 1971

Bangladesh infiltrations seen as part of ISI’s long-term plan to destabilise India

August 16, 2025 | 11:01 IST