Pakistan's Pharmaceutical Sector Braces for Impact Amidst Diplomatic Crisis
Pakistan's pharmaceutical sector faces a significant challenge as diplomatic tensions with India threaten to disrupt critical medicine supplies. Following Pakistan's suspension of all trade ties with India&mdash;a retaliatory move after India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty in response to the Pahalgam terror attack&mdash;health authorities have activated emergency preparedness protocols to manage potential medicine shortages.
Historical Dependency Creates Vulnerability
Pakistan's pharmaceutical market has long been heavily dependent on Indian imports. Currently, 30-40% of Pakistan's pharmaceutical raw materials&mdash;including Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and advanced therapies&mdash;originate from India. This dependence has created a precarious situation for Pakistan's healthcare system.
The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) confirmed that whilst no formal directive has yet been issued specifically for the pharmaceutical sector, contingency measures developed since the 2019 trade tensions are being activated.
"Following the 2019 crisis, we had started preparing for such contingencies. We are now actively looking at alternative avenues to meet our pharmaceutical needs," a senior DRAP official stated.
Critical Medicines at Risk
The ongoing situation places several essential medicines at particular risk, including anti-rabies vaccines, anti-snake venom, cancer treatments, and biological therapies. These have been prioritised in DRAP's contingency planning to prevent life-threatening shortages.
The dependency on Indian pharmaceutical supplies is rooted in economic pragmatism&mdash;India's robust generic drug manufacturing capabilities and proximity have traditionally offered Pakistan cost-effective access to essential medicines. In the most recent fiscal year up to March 2025, India's pharmaceutical exports to Pakistan were valued at approximately &pound;208 million, representing over 7% of Pakistan's total pharmaceutical imports.
Alternative Sources Under Exploration
In response to the trade disruption, DRAP is actively exploring alternative sources from countries like China, Russia, and several European nations to maintain essential drug availability. However, industry experts caution that establishing new supply chains takes time and typically involves higher costs.
"Shifting supply chains isn't simply a matter of placing new orders," explains Dr Zafar Iqbal, a senior health expert. "There are regulatory approvals, quality assessments, and logistical arrangements that must be established. This requires both time and investment."
Limited Domestic Production Capacity
Pakistan's domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity remains significantly below its national demand. The country produces approximately 70% of its finished formulations domestically but relies heavily on imported APIs and specialised ingredients.
"Our manufacturing infrastructure has improved over the past decade, but we still lack the capacity to produce many complex raw materials and biological products," notes a senior pharmaceutical industry analyst. "Building this capacity requires substantial investment and technical expertise."
Black Market Concerns
Complicating matters further is the continuing illegal trade of unregistered and unapproved medicines through routes such as Afghanistan, Iran, Dubai, and the eastern border. Whilst these channels partially fill supply gaps, they present significant risks due to inconsistent quality and unreliable supply chains.
Health authorities have expressed concern that medicine shortages could drive more patients towards these unregulated channels, potentially exposing vulnerable populations to substandard or counterfeit products.
Trade Despite the Ban
Despite Pakistan's official suspension of trade with India in August 2019, imports have been gradually increasing. According to the latest estimates from trade analysts, Pakistan imported &pound;26.8 million worth of goods from India in February 2025&mdash;a 28% increase from the previous year, based on UN COMTRADE data trends.
This persistent flow of goods despite the official ban raises questions about both the effectiveness of Pakistan's policy and the economic necessity of certain imports, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals where alternatives are limited or more expensive.
Potential for Domestic Industry Growth
Some public health experts view the current crisis as a potential catalyst for Pakistan to invest more heavily in local production of APIs, vaccines, and biological products.
"This crisis could be a turning point for Pakistan's pharmaceutical sector," said Dr Iqbal. "With proper investment and policy support, we could develop greater self-sufficiency in critical medicines over the medium to long term."
However, such development would require significant capital investment, technical knowledge transfer, and regulatory support&mdash;resources that may be difficult to mobilise rapidly in the current economic climate.
As patients and healthcare providers anxiously monitor the situation, Pakistan's health sector faces the challenging task of balancing diplomatic considerations with the essential need to maintain access to life-saving medicines.

Healthcare System Under Pressure as Diplomatic Tensions Threaten Essential Drug Supplies

Pakistan Faces Medicine Crisis as India Trade Halts

Healthcare System Under Pressure as Diplomatic Tensions Threaten Essential Drug Supplies

April 27, 2025 | 11:00 IST