<h3 data-start="361" data-end="403">India at the centre, world in view</h3>
India enters the 2025&ndash;26 wheat season with renewed confidence after two volatile years. A higher Minimum Support Price (MSP) of ₹2,585 per quintal, record sowing, and expectations of a bumper crop of 118&ndash;119 million tonnes (MT) have re-anchored the domestic market. However, Indian wheat prices are shaped against a well-supplied global market, rising global stocks, and bearish international prices, which together influence domestic policy and price trends in 2026.
<h3 data-start="911" data-end="960">Global wheat: surplus dominates sentiment</h3>
At the global level, wheat production in 2025&ndash;26 is estimated at nearly 829 MT, up 3.5% year-on-year. This has pushed global ending stocks to around 270&ndash;275 MT, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio above 33%, signalling a comfortably supplied market rather than scarcity.
As a result, international wheat prices are expected to remain under pressure at $225&ndash;230 per tonne. Even in 2026&ndash;27, although output growth may slow, global stocks are forecast to remain comfortable, limiting any sharp upside in prices.
<h3 data-start="1506" data-end="1553">Leading producers shaping global supply</h3>
&bull; European Union wheat output has surged 16% YoY to over 142 MT, the highest since 2015&ndash;16, following recovery from last season&rsquo;s poor crop. &bull; Russia has delivered another strong harvest of 86&ndash;87 MT, its third-largest on record, reinforcing its dominance in exports. &bull; United States production stands at over 54 MT, the largest since 2016&ndash;17. &bull; Canada and Argentina have also reported record or near-record output, strengthening global export availability.
Together, these producers ensure ample global trade supply, keeping international prices subdued.
<h3 data-start="2175" data-end="2218">What global surplus means for India</h3>
For India, the global glut has two key implications:
<ol data-start="2274" data-end="2546">
<li data-start="2274" data-end="2409">
Export parity remains unattractive, as India&rsquo;s MSP-linked prices (around $290 per tonne) are well above global benchmarks.
</li>
<li data-start="2410" data-end="2546">
Policymakers gain comfort that global shortages are unlikely, allowing focus on domestic inflation control and food security.
</li>
</ol>
<h3 data-start="2553" data-end="2591">India&rsquo;s domestic wheat picture</h3>
India is poised for its ninth consecutive record wheat harvest, with production projected at 117.5 MT and the government targeting 119 MT.
State-wise contribution remains critical: &bull; Uttar Pradesh &ndash; 31.77% &bull; Punjab &ndash; 27.89% &bull; Madhya Pradesh &ndash; 21% &bull; Haryana &ndash; 11% &bull; Gujarat &ndash; ~3 MT
Despite flood-related damage in parts of Punjab, losses are expected to be offset by better yields elsewhere.
<h3 data-start="3046" data-end="3088">Procurement, stocks and PDS impact</h3>
Government procurement is expected at 30&ndash;31 MT, potentially touching 32 MT, the highest in four years. With existing stocks already above 30 MT, well above the January 2026 buffer norm of 20.52 MT, ending stocks could rise to 17&ndash;18 MT.
This ensures uninterrupted supply for the Public Distribution System (PDS), including 18.4 MT annually for welfare schemes such as PMGKAY.
<h3 data-start="3508" data-end="3553">Millers&rsquo; concerns and market dynamics</h3>
India&rsquo;s organised wheat milling sector requires 18&ndash;20 MT annually, but mills are operating at only 55&ndash;60% capacity. Millers have demanded that buffer stocks be raised from 7&ndash;7.5 MT to 18&ndash;20 MT to prevent price volatility. The government has not accepted this demand, instead relying on:
&bull; Stock limits on traders and wholesalers (till March 31, 2026) &bull; Open Market Sales (OMS) &bull; Controlled releases to stabilise prices
<h3 data-start="4013" data-end="4048">Mandi prices and MSP effect</h3>
During the harvest season (April&ndash;June 2026), mandi prices are expected to stabilise near or slightly above MSP due to aggressive procurement.
Historically, prices rise once arrivals taper. In 2025, mandi prices touched ₹2,611 per quintal, nearly 15% above the then MSP of ₹2,425, prompting tighter regulatory controls.
<h3 data-start="4400" data-end="4439">What consumers will pay in 2026</h3>
For households, wheat prices will remain structurally higher:
&bull; Retail wheat prices are likely to range between ₹3,200&ndash;₹3,600 per quintal &bull; Premium varieties such as Sharbati, Sonalika, Khapli, Tukdi, Daudkhani and Bhaliya will command higher premiums, especially in urban markets
The key reason remains the higher MSP floor, along with logistics, milling costs and retailer margins.
<h3 data-start="4867" data-end="4902">Export policy: the wildcard</h3>
The government has proposed allowing limited exports of wheat-based products, citing ample stocks and easing inflation (wheat inflation at 2.04% YoY).
&bull; An initial 1 MT export of wheat products could improve mill capacity utilisation &bull; However, a full lifting of the raw wheat export ban (in place since May 2022) appears unlikely unless stocks rise further and retail inflation stays benign
<h3 data-start="5337" data-end="5356">Bottom line</h3>
The 2026 wheat market presents a clear contrast:
&bull; Global wheat: abundant supply, bearish prices &bull; Indian wheat: MSP-backed price floor, strong procurement, cautious trade policy
This ensures price stability for farmers, adequate food security, but higher costs for consumers, making wheat a classic case of policy-led price firmness in a globally soft market.

Global surplus caps world prices, but India’s MSP, policy and stocks keep wheat firm

Wheat 2026: India’s Price Floor Meets Global Glut

Global surplus caps world prices, but India’s MSP, policy and stocks keep wheat firm

December 14, 2025 | 14:59 IST