India&rsquo;s merchandise exports to the United States are projected to decline by USD 5.76 billion in 2025, following newly announced tariff hikes by the US government, according to an analysis by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank. The anticipated decline will primarily impact key sectors including marine products, gold, electrical goods, and electronics.
The US has imposed additional duties of 26% on Indian imports&mdash;excluding pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and specific energy-related goods&mdash;effective from April 9. A baseline tariff of 10% will apply from April 5-8. These measures are expected to significantly impact India's export performance in the coming year.
"Using detailed trade data and tariff schedules, the analysis estimates that India could see a decline of USD 5.76 billion, or 6.41 per cent, in exports to the US in 2025," GTRI stated.
Last year, India exported USD 89.81 billion worth of goods to the US.&nbsp;
Several high-value sectors are projected to experience substantial declines. Exports of fish and crustaceans are expected to decrease by 20.2%, iron and steel articles by 18%, diamonds and gold products by 15.3%, vehicle and parts exports by 12.1%, and electrical, telecom, and electronic products by 12%.
Other export categories likely to be adversely affected include plastics, carpets, petroleum products, organic chemicals, and machinery. The study evaluated sector-specific exposure, tariff changes, and the competitive landscape involving countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada.
Despite the overall projected decline, India's competitive edge in certain segments may provide some mitigation. Modest gains are anticipated in exports of made-up textiles, apparel, ceramic goods, inorganic chemicals, and pharmaceutical products.
Energy products, including petroleum and solar panels, along with pharmaceuticals and copper, have been exempted from the country-specific tariffs. These items, which constituted USD 20.4 billion or 22.7% of India&rsquo;s total exports to the US in 2024, will continue to be subject only to the standard Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff.
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US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi

India's exports to the US may fall by $5.76 bn this year due to new tariffs on key goods, says GTRI analysis

India’s US Exports to Drop $5.76 Bn Amid New Tariffs

India's exports to the US may fall by $5.76 bn this year due to new tariffs on key goods, says GTRI analysis

April 7, 2025 | 14:04 IST