When <a title="Ukraine Russia War" href="https://www.benefitnews24.com/international/putin-to-trump-russia-open-to-ukraine-settlement/21005" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ukraine</a> President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that Ukrainian long-range strikes had damaged 20% of <a title="Russia Oil" href="https://www.benefitnews24.com/business/us-targets-russia-s-oil-giants/21238" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Russia&rsquo;s</a> oil refining capacity, it underscored a new front in the ongoing war &mdash; one that could ripple across European and global energy markets.
<h3 data-start="453" data-end="491">Cracks in Russia&rsquo;s refining base</h3>
According to Ukrainian intelligence shared by President Zelenskyy, over 90% of the deep-range strikes on Russian territory were conducted using indigenously made long-range weapons. These targeted attacks have caused severe damage to Russia&rsquo;s energy infrastructure, forcing dozens of refineries offline and reducing production of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel.
With refining output down by roughly one-fifth, Russia&rsquo;s domestic market is feeling the strain. Fuel shortages have appeared in several regions, inflation has surged, and the government has been forced to import refined fuel from Belarus, China, and Asian suppliers. In some areas, local fuel prices have seen their sharpest rise in over a decade.
<h3 data-start="1232" data-end="1267">Europe&rsquo;s energy vulnerability</h3>
Europe, while having cut its direct dependence on Russian oil since 2022, remains vulnerable to shocks in refining supply. The continent now imports just 3% of its crude oil from Russia, compared to 27% before the invasion of Ukraine. Yet, indirect flows of refined products &mdash; through countries such as India and Turkey &mdash; continue to reach European markets.
A 20% reduction in Russia&rsquo;s refining output will tighten global fuel supply, especially in diesel and heating oil, commodities that Europe heavily depends upon. As winter approaches, such constraints could result in price spikes and logistical stress, particularly for smaller economies still reliant on imported refined fuels.
ALSO READ: https://www.benefitnews24.com/international/trump-repeats-claim-on-india-s-oil-cut/21356
<h3 data-start="1983" data-end="2026">Global oil and gas price implications</h3>
Russia remains one of the world&rsquo;s largest energy exporters, contributing about 8% of global oil supply. Disruption in its refining network alters both crude and refined product balances worldwide.
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Crude oil markets may see a mixed impact &mdash; reduced refining could lead Russia to export more crude oil at discounted prices, but ongoing sanctions and shipping restrictions limit its market reach.
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Refined product prices are likely to rise globally, as supply shortfalls from Russia push traders to seek alternatives from the U.S., the Middle East, and Asia, bidding up prices.
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Gas prices may feel indirect pressure if European demand shifts toward gas heating as liquid fuel costs climb.
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<h3 data-start="2753" data-end="2789">A blow to Russia&rsquo;s war economy</h3>
Oil exports remain central to Russia&rsquo;s war financing. In the third year of the full-scale invasion, the European Union still paid &euro;21.9 billion for Russian fossil fuels, only a marginal volume drop from the previous year. However, sanctions have begun to bite harder &mdash; new restrictions and shadow-fleet crackdowns could slash Russian export revenues by up to 22% annually.
With reduced refining capacity, Moscow&rsquo;s ability to convert crude into higher-value exports weakens. The fiscal hit from lost refining margins, coupled with sanctions on oil product sales, means less cash for its war effort and greater dependence on Asian buyers.
<h3 data-start="3448" data-end="3482">Strategic and market outlook</h3>
Europe will likely seek alternative refined-product imports from the Middle East, the U.S., and Africa. But this shift will come with higher costs and tighter competition. For now, Ukraine&rsquo;s strategy of targeting Russia&rsquo;s refining heartland has achieved more than tactical damage &mdash; it has disrupted the economic arteries that sustain the Kremlin&rsquo;s war machine.
The global market, meanwhile, must adjust to a new equilibrium where supply routes, refinery margins, and transport costs are all in flux. For European consumers, this translates into higher prices and renewed inflationary pressurethrough the winter.
The strikes mark a pivotal moment: as Russia&rsquo;s refineries burn, Europe&rsquo;s energy calculus faces another test &mdash; balancing its sanctions regime with the unavoidable reality of a tightening global market.

Russian refinery fire after Ukraine strike

How a damage to Moscow’s refining base ripples through Europe and global energy markets

Russia’s 20 % refinery hit – Europe braces

How a damage to Moscow’s refining base ripples through Europe and global energy markets

October 29, 2025 | 16:32 IST