<p><strong>Japan&rsquo;s Double Bind: Why Tokyo Opposes a Nuclear Iran Despite No Direct Threat</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p data-start="240" data-end="631">When Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba declared in Calgary this week that &ldquo;Iran must never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons,&rdquo; it was not merely a diplomatic soundbite delivered on the sidelines of the G7 summit. It was a reaffirmation of Japan&rsquo;s long-standing posture towards nuclear non-proliferation&mdash;a position shaped as much by historical trauma as by geopolitical calculations.</p>
<p data-start="633" data-end="1208">Yet, this stark stance against Iran acquiring nuclear arms raises an essential question: why does Japan take such a firm line on Tehran&mdash;its historic energy partner&mdash;when it lives in the shadow of nuclear-armed North Korea and a rapidly militarising China? There is no imminent Iranian threat to Japanese territory or interests. On the contrary, Iran and Japan have enjoyed nearly 90 years of largely stable and cordial relations. Tokyo&rsquo;s opposition to a nuclear Iran, then, is as much about diplomatic alignment and strategic signalling as it is about non-proliferation norms.</p>
<h3 data-start="1210" data-end="1237">The Ghosts of Hiroshima</h3>
<p data-start="1239" data-end="1736">Japan&rsquo;s nuclear stance cannot be fully understood without acknowledging its singular position in the global community as the only country to have suffered atomic bombings. The memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki continues to shape its domestic and foreign policy, leading to a strong public aversion to nuclear weapons. This deep anti-nuclear sentiment permeates Japanese society and politics, binding even conservative leaders to uphold non-proliferation principles as part of Tokyo&rsquo;s moral compass.</p>
<p data-start="1738" data-end="2008">However, this idealism is tempered by realpolitik. Japan remains under the protective cover of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, a contradiction that highlights its dependence on American strategic guarantees while simultaneously advocating for a world free of nuclear weapons.</p>
<h3 data-start="2010" data-end="2045">Iran, Oil, and the JCPOA Legacy</h3>
<p data-start="2047" data-end="2658">Historically, Iran has been an important partner for Japan in the energy sector. Before international sanctions intensified, Japan imported substantial quantities of crude oil from the Islamic Republic and was one of the top investors in Iran&rsquo;s energy infrastructure. Japan&rsquo;s decision to significantly cut these imports in the lead-up to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was not purely out of principle&mdash;it was also a calculated move to support the multilateral effort to contain Iran&rsquo;s nuclear programme and, indirectly, maintain harmony with its Western allies, especially the United States.</p>
<p data-start="2660" data-end="3070">Tokyo viewed the JCPOA as an effective arms control framework and a diplomatic success story. It allowed for the resumption of energy trade and investment with Iran, aligning economic interests with global stability. Japan was, at the time, a quiet but steady supporter of the deal&mdash;not because it perceived Iran as a threat, but because the deal represented a peaceful solution to a potentially volatile issue.</p>
<p data-start="3072" data-end="3591">The Trump administration&rsquo;s withdrawal from the JCPOA put Japan in a bind. While publicly neutral, Tokyo was caught between a transactional American foreign policy and its own desire for regional stability and economic engagement with Iran. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe&rsquo;s earlier doctrine of &ldquo;proactive contributions to peace&rdquo; and a &ldquo;free and open Indo-Pacific&rdquo; further reinforced Japan&rsquo;s image as a guardian of liberal international order. In that context, Japan&rsquo;s support for the JCPOA was both strategic and ideological.</p>
<h3 data-start="3593" data-end="3636">Strategic Synchronisation with the West</h3>
<p data-start="3638" data-end="4107">Prime Minister Ishiba&rsquo;s remarks this week are consistent with Tokyo&rsquo;s cautious but loyal alignment with the Western consensus on nuclear non-proliferation. By condemning the prospect of a nuclear Iran, Japan shores up its credibility as a responsible actor on the world stage, particularly within the G7 and Indo-Pacific alliances. It&rsquo;s also a signal to the United States&mdash;its most vital security partner&mdash;that Japan remains in step with Washington&rsquo;s strategic worldview.</p>
<p data-start="4109" data-end="4477">However, this posture exposes Japan to accusations of double standards. Why should Iran be denied nuclear capability when its regional rivals&mdash;Israel with 90 warheads, Pakistan with 170, and India with 180&mdash;remain untouched by such scrutiny? Why does Japan tolerate China&rsquo;s 600-strong arsenal and North Korea&rsquo;s estimated 50 nuclear weapons but draw a red line with Iran?</p>
<p data-start="4479" data-end="5013">The answer lies in geography and threat perception. North Korea&rsquo;s missile launches routinely trigger alarms across Japan. China&rsquo;s growing military assertiveness in the East China Sea and broader Indo-Pacific theatre represents a more immediate and tangible threat to Japan&rsquo;s sovereignty and regional interests. Iran, by contrast, is geographically distant and has not demonstrated hostile intent towards Japan. Its Shia ideological orientation has also made it less central to Japan&rsquo;s growing concerns about Sunni extremist terrorism.</p>
<h3 data-start="5015" data-end="5041">The Price of Principle</h3>
<p data-start="5043" data-end="5586">By standing firm against a nuclear Iran, Japan is making a choice that reflects both its pacifist identity and its pragmatic interest in maintaining strategic alignment with the West. However, this comes at a cost. Japan&rsquo;s leverage in Tehran has diminished. Where once Tokyo could serve as a credible interlocutor between Iran and the West, today it is viewed more as a cautious observer than an active mediator. Its energy interests have also suffered, with Iranian crude largely replaced by imports from other, sometimes costlier, suppliers.</p>
<p data-start="5588" data-end="6084">Yet, the underlying principle remains unchanged. Japan believes that proliferation anywhere is a threat to peace everywhere. In a volatile Middle East already awash with military conflict and sectarian tension, the addition of a nuclear-armed Iran could, in Tokyo&rsquo;s view, tip the region into chaos. That fear, combined with Japan&rsquo;s own history and its alliance obligations, makes opposition to Iranian nuclear armament an unavoidable position&mdash;even if it complicates relations with an old partner.</p>
<p data-start="5588" data-end="6084"><strong>Between Idealism and Realism</strong></p>
<p data-start="6132" data-end="6474">Japan&rsquo;s opposition to Iran&rsquo;s nuclear ambitions is not grounded in threat perception but in a principled belief in non-proliferation and a deep-seated alignment with the Western strategic framework. It reflects the tension between Japan&rsquo;s identity as a pacifist nation scarred by nuclear war and its dependence on American security assurances.</p>
<p data-start="6476" data-end="6887" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">In opposing Iran&rsquo;s nuclear trajectory, Tokyo walks a narrow path&mdash;balancing ideals with interests, history with strategy. Whether it can continue to do so without undermining its regional influence or economic priorities remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that Japan&rsquo;s voice in the nuclear debate will always carry a unique moral weight&mdash;one forged not in theory, but in the terrible reality of war.</p>

Despite no direct threat, Japan opposes Iran’s nuclear path amid historic and strategic tensions

Japan’s Tightrope on Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Despite no direct threat, Japan opposes Iran’s nuclear path amid historic and strategic tensions

June 18, 2025 | 15:47 IST