The recent shift in Bangladesh's foreign policy, under the interim leadership of Muhammad Yunus, is particularly striking. Yunus's call for reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 2025, alongside his growing alignment with China, raises critical questions about India's influence in the region.
Yunus's motives seem clear: he seeks to enhance Bangladesh's regional stature, mitigate economic difficulties through multilateral cooperation, and, most notably, create a counterweight to India's dominance in South Asia. His proposal to reinvigorate SAARC while sidelining India is not just a symbolic gesture&mdash;it is a calculated move with serious geopolitical ramifications. The question we must ask is: How will this impact India's power dynamics in the region?
Reviving SAARC: An Attempt to Corner India?
Yunus has been pushing for SAARC's revival, advocating for it as a means to foster regional trade, connectivity, and cultural ties. On the surface, this appears to be a positive step, but a closer examination reveals a more complex agenda. India has long been hesitant about SAARC&rsquo;s revival due to Pakistan&rsquo;s involvement, effectively stalling the organization since 2016. Yunus's attempt to push forward without India&rsquo;s leadership suggests an alternative power play&mdash;one that could see China taking the dominant role instead.
If SAARC were to be revitalized in this fashion, India would find itself isolated in a regional grouping that it once dominated. Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives have all shown interest in Chinese investments. If these countries align more closely with Beijing under SAARC&rsquo;s banner, it could spell trouble for India&rsquo;s strategic depth in the region.
Bangladesh&rsquo;s Growing Tilt Towards China
The growing partnership between Bangladesh and China is no secret. China is already Bangladesh&rsquo;s largest trade partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $25 billion annually. Chinese investments in key infrastructure projects&mdash;such as the Padma Bridge, Dhaka-Chittagong highway, and several power plants&mdash;have strengthened the economic ties between the two nations.
Yunus's strategic shift aligns perfectly with China's regional ambitions. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has provided Bangladesh with much-needed infrastructure funding, but it has also drawn the country deeper into China's sphere of influence. If this trajectory continues, Dhaka&rsquo;s reliance on Beijing for economic and diplomatic backing will only increase, further weakening India's traditional influence in Bangladesh.
Controversial Remarks on Northeast India: A Geopolitical Provocation
One of the most alarming aspects of Yunus&rsquo;s shift has been his provocative remarks regarding Northeast India. During a visit to Beijing, he reportedly suggested that China should expand its influence over India&rsquo;s northeastern states. Such statements, whether rhetorical or strategic, have heightened tensions between India and Bangladesh.
India has taken these comments seriously. The Modi government responded with a firm diplomatic rebuke, reinforcing that Northeast India is an inseparable part of the Indian Union. Moreover, India has intensified its focus on the region through the "Act East Policy," enhancing infrastructure and security presence to counter any external interference.
If Yunus continues down this path, he risks not only straining relations with India but also destabilizing the delicate balance of regional security. Any perceived threat to India&rsquo;s territorial integrity will provoke a strong response, including potential military recalibrations and economic countermeasures.
India&rsquo;s Counter-Strategies: How New Delhi is Responding
Faced with these shifting dynamics, India is recalibrating its approach.
<ol start="1" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal">Diplomatic Outreach:&nbsp;India has been strengthening ties with Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka to maintain its regional influence. By deepening economic and security engagements with these nations, New Delhi aims to prevent a domino effect where smaller South Asian nations fall entirely under Beijing&rsquo;s sway.</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">Economic Initiatives:&nbsp;Recognizing the economic leverage China holds over Bangladesh, India is ramping up its economic assistance and investments. New Delhi has prioritized connectivity projects like the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative to offer viable alternatives to Chinese investments. Additionally, India is increasing trade concessions to Bangladesh, making it more economically attractive for Dhaka to remain aligned with India.</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">Strategic Military Measures:&nbsp;The Indian government has enhanced security measures along the Bangladesh border and intensified military exercises in the Northeast. Intelligence monitoring of cross-border activities has been strengthened, ensuring that any destabilization attempts are swiftly countered.</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">Quad and Indo-Pacific Engagement:&nbsp;India is also leveraging its partnerships through the Quad (India, USA, Japan, Australia) to counter China&rsquo;s growing influence in South Asia. Enhanced defence cooperation with the U.S. and Japan could provide India with additional strategic depth in managing regional challenges.</li>
</ol>
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
While Yunus&rsquo;s moves may seem aggressive, they also provide India with an opportunity to reassess its regional policies. New Delhi must recognize that economic partnerships play a crucial role in maintaining influence. If India can offer Bangladesh tangible benefits&mdash;greater market access, improved infrastructure collaboration, and developmental aid&mdash;it can mitigate China&rsquo;s growing grip on the country.
Moreover, India must engage in proactive diplomacy to ensure that SAARC, if revived, does not become a China-dominated bloc. Rather than dismissing the initiative outright, India could consider re-engaging on its own terms, ensuring that its strategic interests remain safeguarded.
The unfolding developments in Bangladesh underscore a larger trend in South Asia&mdash;China&rsquo;s expanding influence and India&rsquo;s struggle to counterbalance it. Whether New Delhi can navigate these geopolitical shifts effectively will determine the future of South Asian power dynamics. For now, India must act decisively to reinforce its position, lest it finds itself increasingly encircled in its own backyard.
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India counters Dhaka’s tilt towards Beijing with strategic, economic, and diplomatic moves

Bangladesh Eyes South Asian Leadership, Strengthens China Ties

India counters Dhaka’s tilt towards Beijing with strategic, economic, and diplomatic moves

April 3, 2025 | 11:30 IST