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<p data-start="155" data-end="450"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Global crude oil prices dipped on Friday after reports indicated that former US President Donald Trump would delay a decision on potential American intervention in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Brent crude futures dropped by 2%, trading at $77.24 per barrel.</span></p>
<p data-start="452" data-end="766"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump, amid rising speculation over a US response, has opted to wait up to two more weeks before making a final call. "There&rsquo;s a substantial chance of negotiations with Iran that may or may not take place in the near future," Trump said, according to Leavitt.</span></p>
<p data-start="768" data-end="1157"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Analysts believe that the possibility of diplomatic talks has cooled fears of an immediate escalation in the Middle East &mdash; a region that supplies a significant portion of the world&rsquo;s crude oil. However, Iran has already warned that any direct US involvement would heighten tensions and potentially impact the broader oil-producing region, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE.</span></p>
<p data-start="1159" data-end="1420"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">So far, Israel&rsquo;s strikes have targeted Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, avoiding key oil infrastructure. Oil prices had previously surged over 9% on June 13 when Israeli airstrikes intensified, pushing Brent crude past $78 per barrel &mdash; a five-month high.</span></p>
<p data-start="1422" data-end="1621"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Geopolitical concerns were further inflamed after Tehran threatened retaliation against US military bases in the region. In response, the US deployed another aircraft carrier to bolster its presence.</span></p>
<p data-start="1623" data-end="2008"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Iran, which produces around 3.3 million barrels per day &mdash; about 3% of global output &mdash; exports nearly 1.5 million barrels daily, with China and Turkey being its primary buyers. The Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route bordering Iran, handles over 20 million barrels of oil daily. Iran has previously threatened to block this critical passage in response to international provocations.</span></p>
<p data-start="2010" data-end="2224"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Despite the geopolitical risks, oil supply fundamentals remain stable. OPEC+ has announced an unexpectedly high production hike for July, suggesting the market can absorb any temporary disruption in Iranian supply.</span></p>
<p data-start="2226" data-end="2573"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">According to Emkay Global, India&rsquo;s economy is unlikely to face immediate inflationary pressures. Their forecast keeps consumer price index (CPI) inflation below the Reserve Bank of India&rsquo;s estimate, averaging 3.3&ndash;3.4% in FY26. The report also notes that a $10-per-barrel increase in oil prices could lead to a 35 basis point rise in CPI inflation.</span></p>
<p data-start="2575" data-end="2774"><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Emkay maintains its current account deficit forecast for FY26 at 0.8% of GDP, based on Brent at $70 per barrel. A $10 increase in oil prices could raise the CAD by 0.4&ndash;0.5%, all else remaining equal.</span></p>
<p data-start="2776" data-end="3025" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node=""><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">India's oil sector outlook remains optimistic, supported by strong marketing margins and stable gross refining margins (GRMs), even if Brent crude holds near $75 for the rest of the year. Emkay does not foresee major downside risks in its estimates.</span></p>
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Brent dips 2% as hopes rise for diplomacy in Middle East amid Israel-Iran tensions and US restraint

Oil prices fall as Trump delays Iran war decision

Brent dips 2% as hopes rise for diplomacy in Middle East amid Israel-Iran tensions and US restraint

June 20, 2025 | 19:06 IST