The Nobel Institute has launched an internal review following suspicions of espionage after details about Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado&rsquo;s Nobel Peace Prize win surfaced hours before the official announcement.
According to Norwegian media reports, the breach is &ldquo;highly likely&rdquo; linked to spying. The suspicion arose when Machado&rsquo;s winning odds on the predictive betting platform Polymarket skyrocketed from 3.75% to nearly 73% overnight, just before the Nobel Committee publicly revealed her as the 2025 laureate.
What made the situation even more striking was that no experts or outlets had previously named Machado as a frontrunner, sparking questions about whether confidential information had been accessed illicitly.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Nobel Institute and Secretary of the Nobel Committee, told Norway&rsquo;s TV2 that espionage was &ldquo;highly likely.&rdquo;
He said, &ldquo;We will investigate the matter and, where necessary, tighten security.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Espionage could make it appear as if someone inside leaked information, but that is not likely,&rdquo; Harpviken explained. &ldquo;The Nobel Institute has long been of interest to both state and non-state actors for political and economic reasons. This kind of activity has been going on for decades.&rdquo;
Despite the speculation, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, Chairman of the Nobel Committee, denied any internal wrongdoing. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can&rsquo;t imagine that&rsquo;s the case,&rdquo; he told Norway&rsquo;s NTB news agency.
The Nobel Peace Prize selection process is one of the world&rsquo;s most secretive, with only a handful of people aware of the final decision before the announcement. While rumours of leaks have circulated in past years, none have ever been substantiated.
Maria Corina Machado, who was barred from contesting Venezuela&rsquo;s 2024 presidential election, was honoured for her &ldquo;tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and her struggle to achieve a peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy,&rdquo; the committee said.
Her win has triggered mixed reactions worldwide. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has long expressed interest in the Nobel Peace Prize, criticised the committee&rsquo;s decision, calling it a reflection of &ldquo;politics over peace.&rdquo;
As the Nobel Institute investigates the suspected espionage, it faces renewed scrutiny over the integrity of its famously confidential selection process &mdash; one that may now have been compromised for the first time in its storied history.

Maria Corina Machado after Nobel announcement

Nobel suspects spying after Machado’s Peace Prize leak shocks Oslo

Nobel Institute Probes Espionage Over Prize Leak

Nobel suspects spying after Machado’s Peace Prize leak shocks Oslo

October 12, 2025 | 16:04 IST