In a move with far-reaching geopolitical and humanitarian consequences, <a title="Afghanistan" href="https://www.benefitnews24.com/international/russia-advocates-india-s-role-in-afghan-stability/4503" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Afghanistan</a> has announced plans to build a major irrigation dam on the Kunar River, a key tributary of the Kabul River that eventually merges into Pakistan&rsquo;s Indus basin. The project, Afghan officials claim, is intended to regulate irrigation for their drought-prone eastern provinces &mdash; but analysts warn it could severely reduce water flow into Pakistan, exacerbating its already precarious water crisis.
The Kunar River, originating in Afghanistan&rsquo;s Hindu Kush mountains, flows through Kunar and Nangarhar provinces before joining the Kabul River, which crosses into Pakistan&rsquo;s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region. From there, it feeds into the Indus, sustaining vast agricultural plains that form the lifeline of Pakistan&rsquo;s food production.
This announcement follows closely on <a title="Indus Treaty" href="https://www.benefitnews24.com/india/india-suspends-indus-waters-treaty-with-pakistan/10072" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India&rsquo;s</a> decision to suspend water releases from parts of the Indus systemunder its jurisdiction, citing the need for domestic utilisation and climate-driven stress. With Afghanistan now joining the fray, Islamabad finds itself squeezed from both flanks &mdash; north and east &mdash; by upstream control measures that threaten its hydrological security.
Experts warn that the combined impact of India&rsquo;s and Afghanistan&rsquo;s actions could trigger severe agricultural disruption in Pakistan&rsquo;s Punjab and Sindh regions, where irrigation dependency is near total. Reduced river flow would directly affect wheat, rice, and cotton output, heightening food inflation and social instability.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, argues it has the sovereign right to harness its water resources for domestic development. The Kunar basin, long neglected, offers potential for irrigation, flood control, and hydroelectricity generation. Afghan engineers have reportedly conducted preliminary studies with international support, and construction on the dam&rsquo;s initial phase may begin within months.
Yet, the issue is politically loaded. Afghanistan and Pakistan have no formal bilateral water-sharing treaty, despite decades of interdependence across the Kabul River system. Unlike India and Pakistan, whose Indus Waters Treaty (1960) provides a legal framework, Kabul and Islamabad rely on ad hoc negotiations and diplomatic channels &mdash; now strained by political distrust.
Regional analysts say the move signals a new era of water diplomacy and competition in South Asia. As climate change reduces snowmelt and glacial reserves, upstream nations like Afghanistan and India are prioritising domestic water sovereignty, leaving downstream Pakistan exposed to environmental vulnerability and strategic isolation.
Unless a tripartite water dialogue involving India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan emerges, the region risks sliding into a new front of confrontation &mdash; one not of bullets, but of rivers.

Kunar River winding through Afghan valleys

Afghanistan’s Kunar dam plan may choke Pakistan’s water flow after India’s Indus move

Kabul’s Kunar Gambit: Pakistan Faces Water Shock

Afghanistan’s Kunar dam plan may choke Pakistan’s water flow after India’s Indus move

October 24, 2025 | 14:44 IST