In a stark and perilous escalation, Israel appears to have fundamentally altered its strategic calculus against Iran. What was once a campaign to neutralise Tehran&rsquo;s nuclear ambitions has now evolved into an effort to destabilise the Islamic Republic at its core&mdash;by targeting none other than Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), under directives from Defence Minister Israel Katz, have expanded their operational objectives to strike not only nuclear infrastructure but also the very pillars of Iran&rsquo;s ideological and military command. The targeting of institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia points unmistakably toward an audacious goal: the disintegration of the Khamenei-led theocratic regime.
Khamenei: Iran&rsquo;s Axis of Continuity
To understand the magnitude of this shift, one must grasp what Khamenei represents. He is not merely the Supreme Leader but the axis around which the entire Iranian state apparatus revolves. His death or removal would trigger an internal implosion, dismantling the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic&rsquo;s post-1979 construct. Khamenei&rsquo;s authority stems not from populist mandate but from theological supremacy&mdash;an unelected position reinforced by clerical and military patronage.
A vacuum at the top could cause factional chaos. The IRGC, the clerical establishment, and the civilian government would jostle for dominance, while regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis may act independently or turn inward, uncertain of their strategic anchor.
Succession by Mojtaba: A Soft Coup or a Calculated Transition?
In Western and Iranian elite circles, speculation is rife that Mojtaba Khamenei&mdash;Ayatollah Khamenei&rsquo;s son&mdash;is being considered as a potential successor. While Mojtaba has avoided the political limelight, his influence within the IRGC and clerical echelons has been quietly growing. More Western-aligned and pragmatic, Mojtaba&rsquo;s ascendancy could represent a carefully curated transition&mdash;engineered not entirely by Tehran, but perhaps tolerated, or even encouraged, by external powers seeking a &lsquo;manageable Iran&rsquo;.
Several recent IDF airstrikes, including those targeting high-level military officials, nuclear scientists, and policy advisors close to Khamenei, appear designed to decapitate the Supreme Leader&rsquo;s inner circle&mdash;clearing the field for a more pliable successor.
Assassination Attempt Averted&mdash;But For How Long?
The failed attempt to assassinate Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi during his diplomatic mission to Europe has exposed the extent of Israel&rsquo;s covert campaign. The plot, foiled by Iran&rsquo;s counterintelligence units, reveals an evolving doctrine that goes beyond battlefield deterrence to psychological decapitation&mdash;breaking morale within Iran&rsquo;s corridors of power.
Simultaneously, reports that Khamenei's influential advisor, Ali Shamkhani, was seriously injured but survived earlier Israeli strikes, suggest an intensified intelligence-driven hunt for Tehran&rsquo;s decision-making elite.
Moscow&rsquo;s Red Line: Russia&rsquo;s Cautionary Roar
Russia has sounded an unmistakable warning. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has described any attempt on Khamenei&rsquo;s life as &ldquo;opening Pandora&rsquo;s box.&rdquo; This is more than rhetorical flourish; it is a calibrated geopolitical deterrent. Moscow&rsquo;s ties with Tehran are not transactional&mdash;they are strategic, encompassing energy cooperation, arms sales, and shared interests in Syria and Central Asia.
Should Israel or the US pursue what Moscow views as an extrajudicial regime change, it could force the Kremlin to move from tacit support to active military or cyber intervention. A Russian-Iranian axis confronting Western forces in the Middle East, while improbable, cannot be ruled out entirely.
A Strategic Gamble with Global Consequences
For Israel, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. By striking at the heart of Iran&rsquo;s ideological engine, it aims to short-circuit decades of proxy warfare, nuclear brinkmanship, and regional subversion. But this strategy, if mishandled, could unleash a regional firestorm&mdash;drawing in Russia, destabilising Iraq and Syria, and igniting sectarian tensions from Beirut to Bahrain.
The United States, reportedly hesitant to endorse such an extreme course of action, understands the strategic peril. Washington's reluctance suggests an internal rift within the Western alliance&mdash;between those who seek regime moderation and those who now openly court regime removal.
If Ayatollah Khamenei falls&mdash;by assassination or attrition&mdash;the Islamic Republic&rsquo;s future will enter uncharted terrain. Whether Mojtaba assumes the mantle or chaos engulfs the succession, one thing is clear: the Middle East will never be the same again. The world must now prepare for the consequences of a battlefield that is no longer just military, but existential.

Israel Sets Sights on Iran’s Supreme Leader

Khamenei now in IDF’s crosshairs as Moscow warns of grave fallout if Iran’s regime is toppled

Israel Sets Sights on Iran’s Supreme Leader

Khamenei now in IDF’s crosshairs as Moscow warns of grave fallout if Iran’s regime is toppled

June 20, 2025 | 22:39 IST