Europe is increasingly anxious about U.S. President Donald Trump&rsquo;s renewed push to end the Ukraine war, fearing a settlement that may not hold Russia accountable or weaken its military power. European leaders worry that such an agreement could leave the continent more vulnerable, while strengthening ties between Washington and Moscow.
Many European governments believe that a future peace plan shaped by Washington and Moscow may sideline their interests, particularly if it results in territorial concessions to Russia or economic cooperation that restores Moscow&rsquo;s financial strength. Despite Europe&rsquo;s stake in the conflict, its ability to influence negotiations remains minimal due to limited military leverage.
EU representatives were absent from recent U.S.-Ukraine discussions in Florida, and they will again be spectators when U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff meets Russian President Vladimir Putin. Analysts say European policymakers are beginning to accept the likelihood of an uncomfortable deal driven by major power politics.
Although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has pledged that NATO and EU roles will be included in any settlement, European diplomats remain uneasy. They argue that nearly every aspect of a potential accord, including borders, security guarantees, and economic ties, will directly impact Europe&rsquo;s future.
Trump&rsquo;s previous criticism of NATO still weighs heavily on European capitals, even after he reaffirmed his commitment to the alliance in exchange for increased European defence spending. His administration&rsquo;s willingness to consider elements of Russia&rsquo;s territorial claims in eastern Ukraine has only heightened these concerns.
European officials worry that if Russia is allowed to retain Ukrainian territories it captured by force, it may feel emboldened to target other nations. Some fear Moscow may pose a threat to an eastern NATO member by the end of the decade.
European leaders also warn that reintegrating Russia into global trade could provide billions to rebuild its military. Despite supplying more than &euro;180 billion in aid to Ukraine, EU nations still struggle to shape the terms of a potential peace deal. Internal disagreements have stalled decisions on using frozen Russian assets to support Kyiv.
Europe has attempted to demonstrate military resolve through a planned &ldquo;reassurance force&rdquo; led by France and the United Kingdom, but this contingent would still require U.S. backing to be effective. Security analysts say Europe is now facing the consequences of years of underinvestment in defence a gap that restricts its ability to participate meaningfully in peace negotiations.
As the United States takes the lead in shaping the endgame of the war, Europe finds itself with limited leverage, forced to watch as decisions affecting its security are made elsewhere.

EU worries a U.S.-Russia deal may weaken Ukraine and threaten long-term European security

Europe Fears Fallout of Trump’s Ukraine Deal

EU worries a U.S.-Russia deal may weaken Ukraine and threaten long-term European security

December 2, 2025 | 12:35 IST