India&rsquo;s ambitious nuclear energy programme &ndash; central to its clean energy transition &ndash; faces a growing risk: a global uranium shortage that could cripple long-term power generation.
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) has projected that demand for uranium will surge by nearly one-third to 86,000 tonnes by 2030 and almost double to 150,000 tonnes by 2040. However, existing mines are set to see production fall by 50% between 2030 and 2040 as reserves deplete.
For India, which plans to add significant nuclear capacity in the next decade, this mismatch between demand and supply poses a serious strategic challenge.
<h3 data-start="1204" data-end="1239">India&rsquo;s nuclear ambitions</h3>
At present, India operates 22 nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of about 7 GW. The government&rsquo;s plan is bold:
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Ten 700 MW Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) are being built in fleet mode.
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Five Bharat Small Reactors are targeted by 2033.
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Long-term goals envisage nuclear contributing a substantial share of India&rsquo;s non-fossil energy mix.
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This push is critical to India&rsquo;s COP26 pledge of 50% non-fossil capacity by 2030 and its commitment to achieve net zero by 2070.
<h3 data-start="1771" data-end="1806">Where the bottlenecks lie</h3>
India does have domestic uranium reserves, but these are modest and not enough to fuel future expansion. Currently, India imports most of its uranium from Kazakhstan, Canada, Uzbekistan and Russia. The risks are clear:
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Russia dominates global uranium enrichment (44%) and supplies 35% of US imports. Western sanctions and Moscow&rsquo;s export controls create market volatility.
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Kazakhstan, India&rsquo;s key supplier, produces 40% of global uranium but faces political instability and Russian influence.
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Niger&rsquo;s nationalisation of French-owned mines in 2024 underlined how geopolitics can disrupt supply chains overnight.
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If India continues to depend heavily on imports, any supply shock will delay projects, reduce reactor availability, and jeopardise expansion.
<h3 data-start="2602" data-end="2645">Impact on India&rsquo;s energy security</h3>
The crisis is not only about power generation &ndash; it is about energy sovereignty. With electricity demand in India expected to double by 2040, nuclear power is one of the few clean base-load options. A uranium crunch could:
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Delay commissioning of new reactors.
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Increase costs of nuclear-generated electricity.
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Push India back towards coal dependency, undermining climate goals.
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As one senior nuclear analyst put it, &ldquo;If uranium becomes the weak link, India&rsquo;s clean energy vision will remain on paper.&rdquo;
<h3 data-start="3182" data-end="3210">What India must do</h3>
India needs a multi-pronged strategy to secure its nuclear future:
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Expand domestic uranium mining in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Jharkhand, where deposits remain underutilised.
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Diversify imports beyond a few dominant suppliers to include Namibia, Australia and potential new African producers.
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Invest in advanced fuel cycles and thorium-based reactors, an area where India already has research leadership.
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Push for bilateral agreements ensuring long-term uranium supply security, much like its earlier deals with Canada and Kazakhstan.
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<h3 data-start="3796" data-end="3832">The global picture matters</h3>
Globally, more than 70 GW of nuclear capacity is under construction, with China and India leading new builds. The WNA estimates nuclear capacity will nearly double to 746 GW by 2040. If uranium supply cannot keep pace, nations with the largest expansion plans &ndash; including India &ndash; will be the most vulnerable.
<h3 data-start="4157" data-end="4177">Action required</h3>
India&rsquo;s nuclear future is delicately balanced on a global resource that is tightening fast. Without proactive action, the country risks a nuclear blackout, where reactors are ready but fuel is scarce. The question is not whether the uranium crunch will come &ndash; but whether India can shield its programme from it.

Nuclear Power Plant (image courtesy: WNA)

A looming uranium crisis could derail India’s nuclear expansion and energy security goals

Will Uranium Shortage Stall India’s Nuclear Dream?

A looming uranium crisis could derail India’s nuclear expansion and energy security goals

September 6, 2025 | 17:02 IST