The United States&rsquo; military strike on Iran&rsquo;s nuclear facilities has intensified the Israel-Iran conflict and raised fresh concerns over global oil prices, which have already jumped nearly 20% this month.
Brent crude futures are trading at around $77 per barrel, and analysts expect prices to surge further as the Middle East crisis deepens. Any disruption to oil supplies from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE could significantly impact global markets.
The Houthi rebels have also threatened renewed attacks on maritime shipping if the US continues its aggression, which could hinder oil transport routes.
India, which imports 85% of its crude oil, is particularly vulnerable. A spike in prices could inflate the oil import bill, raise inflation, and weaken the rupee, impacting economic growth.
According to Emkay Global, Iran currently produces 3.3 million barrels per day, or 3% of global output, and exports 1.5 mbpd &mdash; mostly to China and Turkey. Its strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for over 20 mbpd of oil trade, adds to the risk, especially as Iran has previously threatened to block the strait.
Despite this, Emkay notes that oil markets remain well supplied, thanks to OPEC+&rsquo;s planned production hike in July, which may help cushion the blow of reduced Iranian output.
For India, Emkay maintains its forecast of CPI inflation at 3.3&ndash;3.4% in FY26, below RBI&rsquo;s estimate of 3.7%. However, every $10/barrel increase in oil could push CPI inflation up by 35 basis points and widen the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.4&ndash;0.5% of GDP.
The firm remains positive on India&rsquo;s oil marketing companies, citing strong margins and resilience at $75/bbl Brent levels.
[Except for the headline, this article has not been edited by the Benefit News editorial team and is published directly from the IANS news feed.]

Oil Prices May Spike Amid US Strikes on Iran, Rising Tensions

Middle East conflict fuels global oil fears; India faces inflation, import bill, rupee risks

Oil Prices May Spike Amid US Strikes on Iran, Rising Tensions

Middle East conflict fuels global oil fears; India faces inflation, import bill, rupee risks

June 22, 2025 | 17:48 IST