The Indian economy is expected to clock a medium-term growth of 6.7% on average between fiscal 2025 and 2031, and touch the $7 trillion mark, according to a report by rating agency CRISIL. 
This would be similar to the 6.6% growth seen in the pre-pandemic decade, driven by a capex push and surge in productivity.
The report projects India&rsquo;s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 6.8% during the current financial year as high interest rates and stricter lending norms are expected to impact urban demand.
&ldquo;A somewhat lower fiscal impulse to growth (as the Central government pursues fiscal consolidation) should also weigh on growth,&rdquo; the ET-Crisil India Progress Report states.
Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to ease to 4.5% on average in 2024-25 from 5.4% in the previous year, driven by lower food inflation. However, the report sees weather conditions and geopolitical uncertainties as key risks to its growth and inflation forecasts.
&ldquo;Although kharif sowing is higher this year, the impact of excess and unseasonal rains needs to be ascertained. An adverse weather event through the rest of this fiscal remains a constant risk to food inflation and agriculture income,&rdquo; the report states.
According to the report, &ldquo;Any further escalation in geopolitical tensions could constrain supply chains, disturb trade and push up oil prices, impacting inflation and sending input costs soaring.&rdquo;
The report forecasts India&rsquo;s current account deficit to remain in the safe zone on the back of robust services export and healthy remittance inflows although it is expected to rise to 1% of GDP during 2024-25 compared to 0.7% in 2023-24.
Meanwhile, the latest data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry show that India&rsquo;s merchandise exports jumped by a robust 17.25% to USD 39.20 billion in October this year, as compared to USD 33.43 billion during the same month last year.
The double-digit growth in exports amid the slowdown in global trade was driven by engineering goods, electronic goods, organic and inorganic chemicals and textiles which reflects the growing strength of India&rsquo;s manufacturing sector.
India&rsquo;s total exports (merchandise and services combined) for October 2024 are estimated at USD 73.21 billion, registering a growth of 19.08% vis-&agrave;-vis October 2023. Total imports (merchandise and services combined) for October 2024 are estimated at USD 83.33 billion, registering a positive growth of 7.77% vis-&agrave;-vis October 2023.
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&mdash;IANS
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Growth predicted to be almost on par with pre-pandemic decade

The country’s GDP growth projected at 6.8% for the current financial year

Indian Economy to Touch $7 Trillion Mark By 2031: Report

The country’s GDP growth projected at 6.8% for the current financial year

November 15, 2024 | 12:54 IST