Trump&rsquo;s Balancing Act: Why the US Won&rsquo;t Publicly Back India After Pahalgam Terror Attack
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By maintaining a carefully-worded neutrality following the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, US President Donald Trump has once again demonstrated Washington&rsquo;s enduring policy of equidistant diplomacy between India and Pakistan. Despite India losing 26 civilians&mdash;mostly tourists&mdash;in one of the worst terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir since Pulwama 2019, Trump stopped short of offering unambiguous support to New Delhi, instead reiterating:&nbsp;&ldquo;I am very close to India, I am very close to Pakistan.&rdquo;
This statement, although diplomatically standard on the surface, carries deeper strategic weight. For seasoned observers of South Asia, it reveals two key messages. First, Washington is unwilling to openly endorse any Indian retaliation against Pakistan. Second, the US continues to see utility in maintaining strategic ties with Islamabad, even as India emerges as a major defence and technology partner.
The timing of Trump&rsquo;s remarks is crucial. Speaking aboard Air Force One en route to Rome, the former president&mdash;still influential in shaping Republican foreign policy narratives&mdash;chose to downplay the crisis. &ldquo;They will figure it out between themselves, one way or the other,&rdquo; he said, echoing a sentiment that recalls past US responses to India-Pakistan flashpoints, including Kargil, the Mumbai attacks, and Balakot.
Trump&rsquo;s non-committal language reflects a familiar American posture: support for Indian security concerns behind closed doors, but strategic ambiguity in public. Washington has no interest in alienating Pakistan completely, especially as Islamabad edges deeper into Beijing&rsquo;s orbit. By preserving some leverage in Pakistan, the US ensures it retains access to intelligence networks in Afghanistan, checks on Chinese influence in Gwadar, and potential military overflight rights in any future Central Asian conflict scenario.
India, on the other hand, has grown into a preferred US partner in countering China across the Indo-Pacific. Defence pacts like COMCASA, BECA, and the growing interoperability between the Indian and American militaries are testament to a stronger strategic convergence. Yet, this alignment has not translated into unequivocal political support in moments of Indian crisis. The calculus is simple: Washington wants influence in both capitals. Full-throated support for New Delhi would burn bridges in Islamabad.
However, backchannel support is a different story. If India chooses to escalate militarily&mdash;as it did during the Balakot airstrikes in 2019&mdash;Washington is likely to respond in kind through silent logistical and intelligence cooperation. There is precedent: after Pulwama, American pressure reportedly contributed to Pakistan&rsquo;s decision to release captured Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman. Moreover, sources within Indian intelligence circles have hinted that the US could facilitate Israeli support, supply critical spares, and expedite weapons delivery to aid any limited Indian military action.
For now, the message from Trump&mdash;and by extension from Washington&rsquo;s strategic community&mdash;is clear: India must walk the tightrope alone in public, even if it gets a helping hand in private. With the Indus Waters Treaty suspended, Pakistani diplomats expelled, and visas revoked, India appears to be setting the stage for calibrated escalation. But it does so knowing that the world&rsquo;s most powerful democracy, while sympathetic, will likely remain officially silent.
In South Asia, old fault lines remain. And once again, the United States is playing both sides&mdash;carefully, deliberately, and above all, strategically.
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April 26, 2025 | 07:52 IST