Climate-driven sea level rise will significantly threaten major oil ports around the globe, including critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United States, according to a new study.

The findings published by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) highlight a paradox. The burning of fossil fuels, which drives global heating and sea level rise, will ultimately jeopardize the very industry responsible for these emissions.

A sea-level rise of just 1m will hit 13 of the busiest oil ports, with Ras Tanura and Yanbu—which handle nearly all of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports—being the most vulnerable. Together, these ports accounted for $214 billion (about £171 billion) in oil exports in 2023, representing nearly 20% of global oil trade.

In the United States, the oil ports of Houston and Galveston are also at risk. Ports in the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, China, and the Netherlands face similar threats, according to the ICCI.

Acclerated Timelines

ICCI’s latest projections show that a 1m rise in sea levels is likely within a century and could occur as soon as 2070 if polar ice sheets collapse. The report also warns that a 3m rise is probable within the next millennium, with the potential to happen as early as the 2100s under high-emission scenarios.

“Sea-level rise is the most profound long-term impact of the climate crisis,” said Pam Pearson, ICCI director. “These oil tanker ports sit below 1m of sea level rise, making them acutely vulnerable to the very consequences of continued fossil fuel use.”

Since 1990, the rate of sea-level rise has more than doubled due to accelerated ice melt and ocean expansion.

Image Courtesy: CWR

“Unless leaders double down on transitioning away from fossil fuels,” said James Kirkham, chief science adviser at ICCI, “the terrible impacts of sea level rise will intensify, affecting every coastal nation, including those obstructing decarbonization efforts.”

Beyond Coastal Flooding

Even before sea levels overtake coastal structures, higher storm surges and saltwater intrusion will weaken infrastructure and corrode foundations. According to the ICCI, these compounded risks underscore the need for urgent emission cuts to slow the pace of sea level rise and reduce its ultimate height.

Efforts to mitigate flooding by constructing sea walls and other defences are possible but come with prohibitive costs. “It’s a losing battle,” said Murray Worthy of Zero Carbon Analytics. “Sea walls would need continual reinforcement and elevation as seas keep rising.”

Policy Implications

Saudi Arabia, home to two of the world’s most vulnerable ports, has been accused of blocking climate progress at international negotiations, including the Cop29 climate summit and talks on plastics and desertification. The kingdom’s stance on these issues contrasts sharply with the growing urgency expressed by scientists.

ICCI’s analysis, drawing on data from Bloomberg and mapping tools from Climate Central, adds to a May 2024 report that highlighted vulnerabilities at 12 of the world’s busiest oil ports. The updated research includes Yanbu as a high-risk site. Together with Ras Tanura, these ports exported nearly all of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil in 2023.

The report concludes that reliance on fossil fuels undermines long-term energy security as rising seas threaten supply chains. “Countries face a choice,” Worthy emphasized. “Stick with fossil fuels and risk catastrophic disruptions or transition to secure, sustainable renewables.”

Irony: Sea-Level Rise Threatens Major Oil Ports

1m rise could happen by 2070, 13 of world’s busiest oil ports sit within this range

January 4, 2025 | 23:31 IST

Leave a Comment :